Market data and statistics
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|Year||Week 15||Year to date||Annual total||Carcass weight||Average kg|
The table below shows the comparison between the volume of imported pig meat (reported as carcass weight equivalent) with domestic production. This data is updated monthly as soon as the imports data is available, so it lags domestic production data. Population data updated monthly.
|Date||IMPORTED PROD Year ending (t CWE)||DOMESTIC PROD year ending (t CWE)||Tonnes TOTAL PROD||IMPORTS %||POPULATION (000)||TOTAL CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA||Kg 100% NZPork||Kg Pork imports|
Cereals: November 2017
|Barley||490||+25||490||+10||405–410||+10 to 15|
|Maize||450–465||–15 to nc||490||nc||na||na|
|Wheat||490||+25||480||nc||400–410||+10 to 20|
At a glance – prices strengthening
In the upper North Island, any barley traded is coming out of the South Island and this is reflected in the higher price. Looking forward to the new harvest, barley is being recommended as the better option due to better availability because of the large acreage sown. This may be reflected in a “softer” price at harvest. Contracted barley for next harvest is expected to be in the $440-450/tonne range. In the Southern North Island contacts report that what is needed is rain. Late planting due to wet weather is now being challenged by being too dry. Crops that have been planted have come up and are “sitting and not growing.” Rain is needed urgently. One contact indicated that a crop in the Wairarapa has matured already and gone to seed because of the dry weather. There are expectations that the area of barley plantings is well up on last year, some of this at the expense of wheat, which could not be planted because of the earlier wet weather. Dairy demand has increased and is taking what barley that does become available.
The dairy sector is “cleaning up,” any stocks of barley that come on to the market. This demand increase is driven by the drier weather and slowdown in grass growth. While the area of barley sown for the new harvest has increased, “crop establishment has been poor,” and because of the comments such as “less than ideal growing season to date,” “rain is needed,” contacts indicate that “crops are at a tipping point and need rain” and there will be an impact on yield potential and expect no more than “average harvest yields.” Some potential grain may be lost to silage if it does not rain soon.
Steady old crop demand.
In the North Island, there is a similar market situation to barley but wheat supply is more easily being met from the South Island as small parcels keep coming available. Wheat will be in short supply next harvest. In the Southern North Island the wheat area sown will be lower than last year because the paddocks were too wet to work on at planting time. Comments indicate that any wheat short falls will be made up by imports. In the South Island, more wheat is “trickling out” and is satisfying limited dairy demand. There may be some “carry over of wheat into next harvest,” and this will be needed because the acreage of both winter and spring wheat sown is down.
At a glance – Local supply not available, planting complete.
In the Waikato: Contacts indicate that imports of maize have eased the demand and even a “wee bit of local maize becoming available.” Planting in the Waikato is completed and early crops are reported as “got away to a good start,” “looking good” and “but now need rain.” The maize grain area grown is expected to be similar to last year and this means most is already committed. While a lot of growers have not contracted supply, pork outlook contacts indicate that maize imports will “dampen price expectations for growers.” In the Southern North Island while planting was delayed due to wet ground conditions, crops are “up and away,” but are now “desperate for rain.”
Proteins: November 2017
|MBM||720–760||-45 to nc||720–798||-45 to nc|
|Tallow||1000–1100||nc to +125||914–1000||nc to +125|
|Lysine (kg)||4.0||nc||2.15 to 2.31||nc|
At a glance – Prices stable since last report.
This month porkoutlook contacts indicate a small downward adjustment in meat and bone meal and an upward price change for tallow. Contacts indicate that there may be future supply pressure on synthetic amino acids because of manufacturing factory closures in China.
Pig meat prices: November 2017
|$/kg||trend (cents)||$/kg||trend (cents)||$/kg||trend (cents)|
|Note: Prices above relate to: Pork D1 class, Bacon H2 class|
At a glance – No change in pig meat prices. Market place in balance at present.
Market contacts continue to be positive about the market. Contacts describe the current market situation as “market good,” “supply in balance,’’ “ok trading,” “market easier,” and “expecting a rush in the next few weeks.” Other contacts indicate “a few extra pigs coming through,” “a couple of big kill weeks puts the pressure on,” and “having to manage the pigs being bought forward for Christmas.” Red meats have been around in lower volumes and lamb has been especially slow “in coming forward” and while the prices have held up to date, they are expected to ease as greater volumes come forward. Chicken continues to sell at very low prices and it seems in ever increasing volumes.
Hogsnort provides his overview: “while it is good to see the pork prices where they are, pig farmers are going to be faced with higher feed costs when the new harvest grain arrives in our silos. We would like to see higher prices for our quality pork before Christmas and these continue into next year. Pig farmers cannot continue to struggle like they have.” Hogsnort concludes “I wish everyone a Happy Christmas and look forward to higher pig prices next year.”
Latest stock dataPork Production Week 15 17-18
Pork Production Week 14 17-18
Key points to note:
- The volume imported in November was down by 13% on the previous year.
- The average price per kg at $4.81 was up by almost 20% on the same month last year.
- Frozen product dominates at over 95% of imports.
- The quantity of chilled pork mainly from the US increased (48,072 kg) from that imported in the previous 2 months (23,057 and 22,397 kg) but not as high as it had been in the months prior to September.
- Canada again dominated as the major source of imports at 32% of supply, followed by Spain at 20%.
- The supply of local pork is levelling out.