While providing market data is not a core service, NZPork does provides data as it becomes available. The latest information NZPork has received is provided here.
nc to +100
Lysine ( kg)
This month porkoutlook contacts indicate no major movement in ingredient prices, apart from some upward shift in tallow being reported due increased demand for biodiesel. There was a price reduction of South Island meat and bone meal and soya oil. Slight easing of methionine and the supply and price of lysine has stabilised.
nc to +20
Freight costs for grain from the South Island have increased to $80-$100/tonne. As a consequence in the North Island, new crop barley is reported as becoming more expensive. In addition it is getting harder to source as limited stocks are available in the South. Any North Island barley is contracted and the shortage may be exacerbated by the expected average or lower yields. Harvest to date has been “stop start.” Mixed results have been reported concerning quality and there are reports of higher than normal screenings. Further to this, the dairy sector “has come back on board” and has increased uptake. In the lower North Island, a similar situation pertains, with barley acreage down and the drought on the east coast affecting yields. Harvest is underway; with the malting barley harvest reported as being “pretty well on time.” Dairy farmers are again showing interest, which will put further demand pressure on a limited supply. At present prices from a number of sources are being quoted. Check the origin of barley either new season, old season or imported.
In the South Island, harvest is underway with crops described as “patchy” and a “mixed bag.” Crop yields are average and the quality is variable and “not so good.” Contacts report that some growers as “pulling back” on costs due to the low lower returns, with the outcome of high levels of screenings and a number of crops coming under “disease pressure” prior to maturity. Quality is also affected as some areas are reporting high lodging of crops. Harvest is reported as being “almost half way through”, with some later sown crops “waiting to turn” and ‘crops not quite finished.” A week of good weather is required to clean up what is left. With the lower acreage grown there will be less free barley available. Because of the high freight costs, less is “heading north” so predictions are that supply in the South Island will be “ok” as there “are still a few crops to come in.” There is, however, interest from dairy farmers, with “bits and pieces” being purchased at present. The FAR harvest snippets, reports on barley cultivar trial yield results. Irrigated autumn sown barley at Chertsey mid Canterbury resulted in average yields of 7.3 tonne/ha compared to the 4 year mean of 9 tonnes/ha. Another site at St Andrews, autumn sown under dryland conditions resulted in average yields of 7.5 tonnes/ha.
Maize: At a glance –Northern drought may affect yields. Demand increases.
Upper North Island: The dry weather in Gisborne and Northland may affect yield potential, and this will compound the lower supply available due to the smaller acreage planted. Contacts indicate that if new harvest supply is not already contracted, maize will be hard to obtain.
In the lower North Island, some product has moved into the dairy sector. New season maize crops are reported as being a “month behind” so there are expectations of a later harvest which will put more pressure on an already tight supply. East coast crops will have yield potential affected by drought. Contacts are however more optimistic about yields in the Manawatu/Rangitikei regions.
Wheat: At a glance- Good harvest results
In the North Island, a similar situation to barley pertains with shortages and higher costs to bring it up from the South Island.
In the South Island it is estimated 20% of crops harvested to date and are reported as having “promising”, “favourable”, “good” to “very good” yields and good quality, clean grain. A good run of weather over Waitangi weekend allowed the harvest to get up to date after a “sticky” start. The good quality grain was emphasised by all contacts, further adding that the colour was good and straw exceptional and “as it should be.” The same situation as with the barley crops, the dryland wheat growers had good growing conditions which have led to above average yields. Given the good yields there will be more feed wheat available than was predicted pre harvest. The FAR harvest snippets publication, reports on yield trials for dryland autumn sown feed and biscuit wheat grown at Chertsey Mid-Canterbury as averaging 10.7 tonnes/ha which is 3 tonnes /ha above the four year average.
Pig meat prices
Note: Prices above relate to: Pork D1 class, Bacon H2 class
At a glance – 20 cent/kg reduction in pigmeat prices in New Year
During January and early February, the market was reported as being “tough”, “pressure on in market place”, “extra pigs around”, “cuts difficult to balance”, “not brilliant”, ”strong competition from imports”, “demand not there”, “carcass trade has changed and not selling as well”, and “price having to meet the market.”
The cause of the pressure on the market is a combination of a ready supply of cheap chicken, imported pork and increased domestic supply. Add to this the flat retail and market situation and a culmination of three short weeks, back to school expenses and post-Christmas financial pressure. All these factors contribute to the 20 cent per kg schedule price reduction required to remain viable in the market place. One positive factor commented on over recent weeks, was the increased supply of fresh pork around the Chinese New Year which was reported as being “good”, “exceptional”, “good uptake albeit at market price”, “was a good week” and “allowed a bit of a clean-up of pigs.”
The current supply situation is in complete contrast to this time a year ago where the porkoutlook report stated “contacts are also keeping an eye on the lower pig kill and are wondering how low it will go.”
Strategies going forward to push back at imports will focus on a “point of difference” with New Zealand fresh product.
In the last word, Hogsnort comments that “with the schedule price falling, pig farmers are now facing the market ‘GRIND’ for the next few months.” He is happy to have a more positive reference to the exceptional uptake of pork around the Chinese New Year, with 150,000 promotional booklets sent from NZPork. Hogsnort reports the pork market is now very quiet as people are faced with holiday and back to school expenses. Pig farmers will have to ‘weather’ the market ‘grind’ for the next few months as retailers are reporting the whole retail sector as being slow.”
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